[Leadership] The increase in the operating rate of the butyl acrylate industry continued to limit the rebound rate and sustainability of this product, but last week the international crude oil, raw material propylene, raw material butanol, and downstream short-term procurement behavior, multi-factor positive butyl acrylate prices rebounded. At present, it is judged that although the multi-factor positives have not been enhanced, the propyl butyl ester industry has a firm market at the current stage under current cost and profit conditions.

Industrial chain market review

The raw material n-butanol Shandong market price closed at 7300-7350 yuan/ton last week and rebounded 2.1% during the week; the raw material propylene Shandong market closed at 8120-8200 yuan/ton, rebounded by 1.2% during the week; the downstream tape jumbo roll market in Jiangsu closed at 10300-10500 yuan / ton, rebounded 0.5% during the week; downstream benzene acrylic emulsion market is stability, styrene-acrylic emulsion East China market closed at 8,200 yuan / ton, pure acrylic emulsion East China market closed at 10,500 yuan / ton.

BPA East China closed at 9300-9400 yuan / ton, rebounded 1.1% during the week.

Current industry chain product profitability

Note: Red is profit, green is loss, unit is yuan/ton

Propylene, n-butanol and acrylic emulsions continued to make profits of RMB 1,000-2,000/ton, tape parent volumes were in the cost line, and total costs were estimated to be RMB 75/ton;

In the industrial chain, only the loss of butyl acrylate is severe. According to the overall cost, the loss is 400-500 yuan/ton.

Future market  and profit trend

Propylene plants have no inventory pressure, and demand support in the short term is generally estimated to be market-based; while coal-to-propylene and PDH plants are highly profitable for a long period of time. Despite the profit transfer basis, it is difficult to transfer to butyl acrylate.

The n-butanol plant was gradually overhauled, and the downstream propyl butyl ester started well and the fundamentals became more perfect. The probability of price increase in the short term is expected to be even greater. It is only due to the asymmetric effect of this product and downstream profits, there is no significant increase in the foundation, but the possibility of profit shifting to the downstream in the short term is extremely low. We will focus on whether there will be a turnaround after the round of centralized maintenance.

Tape roll production is currently stable, with production focused on new orders received last week, and it is estimated that recent new orders will be normal. The support for butyl acrylate is flat and it is difficult to profitably transfer to butyl acrylate in the short term.

Acrylic emulsion is in peak demand season, stable in construction, and new orders are better, but market conditions are mainly stable, and it is expected to remain stable and small in the short term. Although profitability is higher, procurement and sales are rational, and profit in the short term is relatively stable; There may be a wave of centralized purchases in this industry, which will facilitate the rebound and profitability of propyl butyl ester.